The current situation in Niger deserves more than a regional attention for how things unfold will be key to peace and security within the West African region. Few insights could be helpful in approaching the situation:
1- A profound disagreement
The coup is definitely made out of profound disagreement, but this time around, it is extremely difficult to say that it’s all about a gap between the people and the government, rather we observe at list that some people have expressed their thorough disagreement with the coup. However, it is obvious that the Armed Forced were not aligned with the leadership of President Bazoum anymore. So the question now is to know if such disagreement is solid ground for a coup. Many factors, especially the current regional security context could suggest a YES to such interrogation.
2- The ECOWAS is on alert and preocupied
The ECOWAS demonstrated a high level of concern by sending almost immediately the President Patrice TALON of Benin Republic to attempt making the situation less disastrous, though it is difficult to state his major agenda, it is clear that some negotiations could have been made in order to maintain a channel of communication with the military as well making sure that the President Bazoum remains sound and safe.
3- Monitoring the military regimes could be more constructive than fighting them
Taking into consideration the statement of President TINUBU of Nigeria while taking over the leadership of the ECOWAS, a strong statement in direction of restoring the rule of democracy especially within the country being lead by military transition regimes, it is clear that the situation sends a strong message: more attention should be given to monitoring the transition regimes than fighting them. The contrast between the principles of ECOWAS and the apparent message is huge, but this does not make the message irrelevant, especially within the current regional context.
4- ECOWAS is between desintegration and redynamisation
The various actions that will be taken by the ECOWAS will either lead to desintegration or redynamisation of the regional body.
Desintegration means that the countries lead by military regimes could end up harmonizing their efforts to tackle security and development issues out of the ECOWAS, Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea have already smoothly express themselves in that direction.
Redynamisation means that the leadership of President TINUBU would take the option of monitoring with the collaboration of the military regimes the transition in the various countries concerned. Thus they will be maintained in the regional body without sanctionnig in a harmful manner the military regimes.
The use of force in this context could be more damaging for the security of the region and put all the West Africa in a very unproductive and selfdestructive position. Such an option seems clearly suicidal.
5- A paradigm shift in state Leadership in West Africa
The need of discussing what type of democracy, what way of governance for what kind of citizen is of instance. Obviously one size democracy doesn’t fit all, the facts on the ground have been showing it for decades and it has reach point where the paridigm shift is not avoidable.
It is clear that the Power of the people by the people for the people is the undeniable way to go idealistically, but the pragmatic approach invites the leaders, the political actors and the civil society to question the tradition in order to figure what “WORKS” for the West African region.
How is the World? 