The ECOWAS summit held in Ivory Coast in order to handle efficiently the situation in Niger came out with a set of decisions that appear to be quite suicidal for the regional integration body for several reasons:
1- The jurisprudence of the sanctions in the case of Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea
It is obvious that the coups in Mali, in Burkina Faso, and in Guinea are different contexts though the reasons could converge at a certain point.
Observations revealed that two situations have been leading to coups d’Etat generally: A profound disconfort and dislocation between the leadership and the people or a profound disconfort and dislocation between the leadership (government) and the Armed forces. We might have instances where there is a combination of the two factors.
In the case of Niger we are dealing mostly with a dislocation between the military and the government even if an interesting demonstration came out later to express the support of the people to the military. In the case of Mali, it has been the combination of the two factors, the people have been protesting and complaining before the first coup and the second coup were staged out of the disagreement that occured between the leaders of the first coup.
The case of Burkina Faso went through practically the same process. Then, the ECOWAS decided basically to take the same sanctions as what is being done to Niger in Mali, isolating the people and cutting down the economical and commercial flows as well as the movement of the people and the goods.
The sanctions created rather resilience from the military Leadership as they drew more sympathy from the people, not just malians, but an interesting part of the West African people. Thus the sociological gap between the ECOWAS and the people increased because of the feeling that it serves only the agenda of the Head of states. There are arguments that they sanctions did work, however the facts are available for observations. Guinea did not accept any injonctions from the ECOWAS as much as Burkina Faso, keeping track on their respective agendas. Therefore, the desired effect of the sanctions have not been reached.
2-The room for regional desintegration
Just after the battery of sanctions of the ECOWAS on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, several other partners expressed their willingness to deal with the states that were under the sanctions. This situation helped the three states, exceptionally Mali to develop resilience and to stand tall. The perspective of starting a different integration process came to mind through the idea of building a Federation suggested by Burkina Faso to Mali. No matter how utopic this could seemed, it is at least obvious that intention of initiating a different integration process aside ECOWAS exist.
During the Recent Russia-Africa Summit, President Ibrahim Traoré did not fail to express his conviction in a better collaboration in the Sahel region while referring to the new development in Niger. It is therefore clear that countries lead by military regimes in West Africa and under sanctions of the regional body have enough reasons to quit the ECOWAS definitely and to build a different regional body in order to solve their common challenges this will lead to a strongly divided ECOWAS.
3-The threat to use force is as suicidal as the use of force
The idea of using force if the military leaders currently in charge de facto in Niger do not reinstall President Bazoum within the next 7 days is not realistic looking at the recent statements of the military leaders warning any state or international organisation to not intervene or interfere in the domestic affairs of their country. If by any chance the ECOWAS decides to use force once the military leaders fail to satisfy the demand of the regional body, the confrontation will make room for an unprecedented dramatic insecurity environment in West Africa.
The ECOWAS as it stands today might definitely not exist anymore. The people might keep in mind that the regional institution has decided to use force against the people of a sovereign state instead of making exactly the same move against the terrorists jeopardizing the peace of the Sahel and now the Golf of Guinea. Mali, Burkina Faso, and probably others could be tempted to support the military leaders of Niger in a probable use of force of the regional Body.
4- The Change in regional security response in the Sahel
The main actor in regional security response has been France so far for many years and the current dynamic cleary informs the far advanced process of changing the response strategy. France has been kicked out of every single Sahel country as main actor. It remains only Chad if the statu quo is confirmed in Niger. It clear that the security response will be efficient only if it is harmonised. Therefore it is quite comprehensive when the President Ibrahim Traoré speaks about a probable better collaboration in addressing the security issue in the sahel with the change in leadership in Niger. However, there is still discussion ongoing on the efficiency of the new response to security threat in the sahel currently, though the key actors are still putting relevant equipment and intelligence together.
ECOWAS is right to think about sanctions, however, the latter should be more constructive than harmful. The sanctions should be focused on targetting the putshists rather than punishing the people of Niger for the mistakes of their leaders. The diplomatic approach could be initiated in order to monitor the transition to a demoocratic civilian leadershuip. Thus a set of highly qualified diplomates and leaders that meet the credibility criteria. It is an option that will take time obviously, but will equally save the most advanced regional integration process in Afriica. Any incursion of the ECOWAS military force in the sahel will increase the level of destabilization of the security aparatus , that will be a threat that Mali and Burkina Faso will not be willing to let happen for the sake of peace in the sahel . The Use of Force is an option that will put an end to the ECOWAS as it stands today and creat a security desaster in West Africa.
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